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James N. Van Elsen, FSA, MAAA, FLMI
(641) 521-5046
jim@veconsulting.com

State of the Race

4/7/2015

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It's almost been a year since I wrote about the state of the 2016 Presidential Race.  While much has been happening, the interest in the race isn't there yet.  That said, I thought it would be interesting to show where I believe things stand right now.


At this point, all I can do is evaluate the relative strength of the two political parties.  Until candidates have been nominated, it is impossible to see how the electorate is reacting to them.  More than one election has been won or lost due to selections made in the nominating process.


At this point, it appears that the Republicans have the edge.  Although they lost the 2012 Presidential Election by 332 - 206, the Republicans have been making big gains.  In terms of the House of Representatives, the congressmen representing the Republican party control 322 electoral votes compared to 183 for the Democrats.  The remaining 33 votes belong to states with an equal number of Republicans and Democrats.


As for governors, the Republicans lead 326 - 206, with 3 votes controlled by an Independent.  In state houses, the Republicans lead 330 - 200, with 8 non-partisan.  In state senates, the Republicans lead 358 - 172, with 8 non-partisan.  Only in the US Senate do the Democrats control more electoral votes.  There the Democrats lead 203 - 176, with 156 votes controlled by split delegations.  The District of Columbia, of course, is not represented in the US Senate.  The US Senate tends to be a lagging indicator of strength due to the 6-year terms of the senators.


Another area that hurts the Democrats is President Obama's current unpopularity.  Per the Gallup Poll, states where unfavorable views exceed favorable views represent 398 electoral votes.  The opposite is true in states with 137 votes.  The District of Columbia is not measured, but I assume that it would fall in favor of the President.


The Democratic Party, however, remains strong.  The Gallop Poll also measures the party affiliations in each state.  The Democrats lead in 308 states to 227 for the Republicans.  Again, the District of Columbia is not measured, but is likely Democratic.


What does all of this mean?  I show that Republicans are currently stronger in states with 332 electoral votes, compared to 197 for the Democrats.  Colorado is currently a toss up with 9 electoral votes.


I show that 11 states have changed colors since the 2012 election.  They are shown in the map with stripes.  These are also summarized in the table at the bottom.  I have rated them in terms of their strength of the Republican Party, ranging from Colorado at 50% (toss up), to Ohio at 94% (at risk).  These percentages are not probabilities, they are merely factors I use to rank the relative strength of the parties in a given state.  You can only infer that the Republican Party in Ohio is currently stronger than the Republican Party in Colorado.


Not much is going to change until the parties start the nominating process.  When the nominees become apparent, I'll begin updating my model more often.  For now, just see that the Republican Party is currently looking better.  This lead, however, is tenuous as the Democrats still control more of the electoral votes than the Republicans.  If they are able to excite their membership again, it is entirely possible that they will once again snatch this election.
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Strong Move to Republicans

4/20/2014

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For whatever reason, there is currently a strong move toward the Republican party. This seen especially in the Big 10 states of Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and WIsconsin.  Movement has also been seen in Colorado, Florida, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia.  Still much too early to tell anything, although it does not bode well for the 2014 mid-term elections.  As the Democratic party responds to this situation, much can be expected to change.  For now, however, the Republicans have a significant lead.
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Update for Gallup

3/5/2014

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Each year, Gallup updates its snapshot on the President's Approval and the party affiliations in each state.  Both of these polls factor into my model for the 2016 presidential election.  The change in party affiliation only had a modest affect on my model.  The President's Approval, however, had a fairly significant affect.  For now, the president's low ratings has put the Republican party in the driver's seat for the 2016 election.  Still much time to go, however, and the approval rating has much lesser effect as we near the election.
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Michigan Moves to Democrat, Nevada Goes Republican

7/22/2013

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Michigan moved into the Democrat column from "Toss Up".  Nevada moved into the Republican column from "Toss Up".  North Carolina continues to bounce.  I have not been reporting every bounce, waiting for it to finally settle in the Republican column.
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North Carolina Ball Keeps Bouncing

6/25/2013

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North Carolina Back to "Toss Up"

6/25/2013

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North Carolina Bounces Back to Republican

6/24/2013

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North Carolina Wobbles, Rhode Island to "Safe"

6/2/2013

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With Governor Chafee moving from Independent to Democrat, Rhode Island moves to "Safe Democrat".  It was just barely in play anyway.  North Carolina continues to bounce between Republican and "Toss Up".  It should move back to Republican sometime in the next few weeks.
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North Carolina Back to Republican

5/30/2013

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Not sure how long it will last.
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North Carolina on Fence

5/21/2013

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North Carolina will soon fall into the Republican column.  For now, however, it reverts to "Toss Up".
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