It's almost been a year since I wrote about the state of the 2016 Presidential Race. While much has been happening, the interest in the race isn't there yet. That said, I thought it would be interesting to show where I believe things stand right now.
At this point, all I can do is evaluate the relative strength of the two political parties. Until candidates have been nominated, it is impossible to see how the electorate is reacting to them. More than one election has been won or lost due to selections made in the nominating process.
At this point, it appears that the Republicans have the edge. Although they lost the 2012 Presidential Election by 332 - 206, the Republicans have been making big gains. In terms of the House of Representatives, the congressmen representing the Republican party control 322 electoral votes compared to 183 for the Democrats. The remaining 33 votes belong to states with an equal number of Republicans and Democrats.
As for governors, the Republicans lead 326 - 206, with 3 votes controlled by an Independent. In state houses, the Republicans lead 330 - 200, with 8 non-partisan. In state senates, the Republicans lead 358 - 172, with 8 non-partisan. Only in the US Senate do the Democrats control more electoral votes. There the Democrats lead 203 - 176, with 156 votes controlled by split delegations. The District of Columbia, of course, is not represented in the US Senate. The US Senate tends to be a lagging indicator of strength due to the 6-year terms of the senators.
Another area that hurts the Democrats is President Obama's current unpopularity. Per the Gallup Poll, states where unfavorable views exceed favorable views represent 398 electoral votes. The opposite is true in states with 137 votes. The District of Columbia is not measured, but I assume that it would fall in favor of the President.
The Democratic Party, however, remains strong. The Gallop Poll also measures the party affiliations in each state. The Democrats lead in 308 states to 227 for the Republicans. Again, the District of Columbia is not measured, but is likely Democratic.
What does all of this mean? I show that Republicans are currently stronger in states with 332 electoral votes, compared to 197 for the Democrats. Colorado is currently a toss up with 9 electoral votes.
I show that 11 states have changed colors since the 2012 election. They are shown in the map with stripes. These are also summarized in the table at the bottom. I have rated them in terms of their strength of the Republican Party, ranging from Colorado at 50% (toss up), to Ohio at 94% (at risk). These percentages are not probabilities, they are merely factors I use to rank the relative strength of the parties in a given state. You can only infer that the Republican Party in Ohio is currently stronger than the Republican Party in Colorado.
Not much is going to change until the parties start the nominating process. When the nominees become apparent, I'll begin updating my model more often. For now, just see that the Republican Party is currently looking better. This lead, however, is tenuous as the Democrats still control more of the electoral votes than the Republicans. If they are able to excite their membership again, it is entirely possible that they will once again snatch this election.
At this point, all I can do is evaluate the relative strength of the two political parties. Until candidates have been nominated, it is impossible to see how the electorate is reacting to them. More than one election has been won or lost due to selections made in the nominating process.
At this point, it appears that the Republicans have the edge. Although they lost the 2012 Presidential Election by 332 - 206, the Republicans have been making big gains. In terms of the House of Representatives, the congressmen representing the Republican party control 322 electoral votes compared to 183 for the Democrats. The remaining 33 votes belong to states with an equal number of Republicans and Democrats.
As for governors, the Republicans lead 326 - 206, with 3 votes controlled by an Independent. In state houses, the Republicans lead 330 - 200, with 8 non-partisan. In state senates, the Republicans lead 358 - 172, with 8 non-partisan. Only in the US Senate do the Democrats control more electoral votes. There the Democrats lead 203 - 176, with 156 votes controlled by split delegations. The District of Columbia, of course, is not represented in the US Senate. The US Senate tends to be a lagging indicator of strength due to the 6-year terms of the senators.
Another area that hurts the Democrats is President Obama's current unpopularity. Per the Gallup Poll, states where unfavorable views exceed favorable views represent 398 electoral votes. The opposite is true in states with 137 votes. The District of Columbia is not measured, but I assume that it would fall in favor of the President.
The Democratic Party, however, remains strong. The Gallop Poll also measures the party affiliations in each state. The Democrats lead in 308 states to 227 for the Republicans. Again, the District of Columbia is not measured, but is likely Democratic.
What does all of this mean? I show that Republicans are currently stronger in states with 332 electoral votes, compared to 197 for the Democrats. Colorado is currently a toss up with 9 electoral votes.
I show that 11 states have changed colors since the 2012 election. They are shown in the map with stripes. These are also summarized in the table at the bottom. I have rated them in terms of their strength of the Republican Party, ranging from Colorado at 50% (toss up), to Ohio at 94% (at risk). These percentages are not probabilities, they are merely factors I use to rank the relative strength of the parties in a given state. You can only infer that the Republican Party in Ohio is currently stronger than the Republican Party in Colorado.
Not much is going to change until the parties start the nominating process. When the nominees become apparent, I'll begin updating my model more often. For now, just see that the Republican Party is currently looking better. This lead, however, is tenuous as the Democrats still control more of the electoral votes than the Republicans. If they are able to excite their membership again, it is entirely possible that they will once again snatch this election.
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